By Bunmi Yekini
The world remains far off track from its climate goals, with new national pledges only marginally slowing predicted global warming, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Tuesday, warning of escalating climate risks and damages.
In its Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, UNEP said projected temperature rise by 2100 now stands at 2.3–2.5°C if countries fully implement their Paris Agreement climate plans, down slightly from 2.6–2.8°C last year. Current policies alone would push warming up to 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C in 2023.
However, the report noted that technical updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the pending withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning the latest pledges have “barely moved the needle.”
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable, starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star.”
Guterres added: “The science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
The report found only 60 parties, representing 63% of global emissions, had submitted or announced new 2035 targets by the end of September. Countries are also not on track to meet their 2030 targets, let alone deeper commitments.
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough.”
UNEP said global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024 to 57.7 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent. To stay aligned with the Paris Agreement, emissions must fall 25% from 2019 levels by 2030 for a 2°C pathway and 40% for 1.5°C. So far, existing pledges only point to a 15% drop by 2035.
“It is still possible, just,” Andersen said. “Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action.”
The report warned that the global temperature average will breach 1.5°C “very likely within the next decade.” Strong action could make the overshoot temporary and minimal, reducing dependence on risky and costly carbon removal technologies.
Seven G20 members have submitted climate targets for 2035, and three have announced theirs, but UNEP said ambition remains insufficient. G20 emissions rose 0.7% in 2024, underscoring the need for a “massive ramp-up” in action.
Despite geopolitical tensions and rising emissions, UNEP said the tools for a faster transition, including cheap renewable energy, are in place. What is needed, it added, is political will, major financing for developing nations, and reforms to global finance systems.
“Action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience,” Andersen said. “The opportunity is clear. We just need to seize it.”