Global climate outlook warns of extreme heat, drought and flooding as UN agencies call for early action to protect vulnerable communities.
By Bunmi Yekini
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño event could reach unprecedented strength, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding across several regions and threatening vulnerable communities.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said on Friday that the climate phenomenon could exceed the monitoring thresholds used over the past four decades, with its effects likely to persist beyond its expected peak towards the end of 2026.
The agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, influences weather patterns worldwide, often bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.
Saulo said the intensifying event could worsen existing humanitarian pressures, particularly in communities already affected by conflict, displacement and inadequate access to housing, water, sanitation and healthcare.
“We are already witnessing extreme weather events and expect these to multiply – and cascade – as El Niño intensifies,” she said.
However, she stressed that the phenomenon did not have to result in a humanitarian disaster, urging governments and humanitarian organisations to act on available forecasts and early warning systems.
“We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent many of its worst human consequences,” Saulo said.
The WMO and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are calling for urgent, coordinated anticipatory action to reduce the risks before conditions deteriorate further.
Regional risks
The seasonal outlook points to contrasting weather risks across regions, with some areas facing an increased likelihood of flooding while others could experience drier conditions and heightened heat exposure.
In East Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of the region during the October-to-December rainy season, increasing concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding.
Southern Africa faces a heightened risk of drier conditions from November, the usual start of the rainy season, potentially affecting crop production, water supplies and livelihoods.
In Southeast Asia, warmer conditions and rainfall deficits could intensify heat exposure, strain agriculture and water resources, and increase the risk of wildfires and smoke haze.
The outlook also indicates increased rainfall risks in parts of the Americas, including the northwestern United States and southern parts of western South America. Above-normal precipitation is also expected in parts of North America and the northern Caribbean.
By contrast, parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon face increased drought risks.
Saulo cautioned that the outlooks indicate seasonal probabilities rather than predicting specific weather events, making regional and national forecasts essential for determining where and when interventions are needed.
Window for preparedness
The WMO chief said the opportunity to prepare remained open in many regions but warned that the window would not remain open indefinitely.
She said climate forecasts should guide governments and humanitarian organisations in planning operations, allocating resources and protecting communities most exposed to extreme weather.
The risks are particularly concerning for displaced people, refugees and communities living in conflict zones, where essential services and infrastructure are already under strain.
Saulo said the WMO was working with OCHA and other United Nations and humanitarian partners to translate climate information into practical decisions that could save lives and protect livelihoods.
The joint call for anticipatory action comes as the agencies seek to ensure that forecasts are followed by timely interventions rather than responses only after disasters have occurred.
She urged governments and humanitarian partners to use the available scientific information to strengthen preparedness and reduce the human cost of the unfolding climate threat.