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World Bank warns Middle East Conflict Driving Surge in Energy, Fertilizer Costs

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By Bunmi Yekini

The World Bank Group on Thursday said the escalating conflict in the Middle East is beginning to strain global commodity markets and supply chains, with sharp increases in energy and agricultural input prices posing risks to emerging economies.

In a statement, the Washington-based lender said several of its client countries had raised concerns over rising costs and logistical disruptions linked to the crisis, prompting the institution to intensify engagement with governments, private sector players and regional partners.

Shipping route disruptions have driven up transport costs and widened supply risks beyond energy markets into fertilizers and other critical agricultural inputs, the bank said. Crude oil prices have risen by nearly 40% between February and March, while liquefied natural gas shipments to Asia surged by almost two-thirds. Prices of nitrogen-based fertilizers also climbed by close to 50% in March, it added.

The World Bank Group said it is closely monitoring developments and remains in direct contact with the most affected countries to assess conditions on the ground.

The lender added it is preparing a scaled response combining immediate financial relief with policy support and private sector interventions aimed at sustaining jobs and economic growth. It plans to deploy existing financing tools, crisis-response mechanisms and pre-arranged facilities, before transitioning to fast-disbursing support tied to policy frameworks.

Through its private sector arms, the bank said it would provide liquidity, trade finance and working capital to firms facing tightening conditions.

While noting that the situation remains fluid and its full economic impact uncertain, the World Bank Group said prolonged disruption and damage to critical infrastructure could significantly deepen challenges for vulnerable economies. It reiterated its commitment to help countries protect recent economic gains amid the unfolding crisis.

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