By Bunmi Yekini
Following a devastating attack on Chadian forces, Chad’s possible exit from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has ignited serious concerns over security in West Africa’s Lake Chad Basin. The attack on October 27 left approximately forty Chadian soldiers dead after assailants, suspected to be Boko Haram militants, launched an assault on a military base on Barkaram Island. This tragedy shocked the nation and prompted swift action from President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, who launched Operation “HASKANITE,” a high-stakes mission to pursue the attackers. In the aftermath, however, Chad now contemplates a move that could shake regional stability: a withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a coalition of regional forces created to counter insurgency across the Lake Chad Basin.
The MNJTF, formed initially by Nigeria in 1994 to combat cross-border banditry and later expanded to include forces from Chad, Niger, Cameroon, and Benin, has been a linchpin in the regional fight against Boko Haram. Over the years, the coalition grew to address the rising threat of terrorism, with Boko Haram and its offshoots wreaking havoc across West and Central Africa, displacing millions and destabilizing entire communities. Chad has been a crucial contributor to the MNJTF, with its troops often on the frontlines. However, the strain of recent attacks and shifting political and security landscapes has led the nation to consider its future with the coalition.
President Deby’s statement has left regional leaders and security analysts on edge. The MNJTF, already weakened by Niger’s recent withdrawal following a military coup, now faces an uncertain future. In a time when insurgent groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) remain highly active, Chad’s exit could create a security vacuum in the Lake Chad Basin, potentially emboldening terrorists and criminals alike.
Experts Warn of Severe Consequences for Regional Security
Brigadier General Sani Usman Kuka (retd.), a former director of Army Public Relations in Nigeria, cautioned that Chad’s exit would disrupt coordinated counter-insurgency operations, which rely heavily on mutual support and shared intelligence across borders. “It would have a negative impact and consequences,” Usman stated, emphasizing that no single nation can combat the insurgency alone. “Fighting security challenges, especially insurgency…is a collective responsibility. No country can do it alone, more so you look at the fact that they [Boko Haram and ISWAP] exploit geographical, historical, and religious affiliations,” he explained.
With the MNJTF headquartered in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena, the nation has historically been a vital hub for intelligence sharing and logistical coordination. Losing Chad’s contribution, according to Usman, would reduce the task force’s operational reach and weaken the coalition’s presence in critical hotspots. “In any case, it requires collaboration and cooperation because you don’t have the resources all by yourself alone,” he noted. Usman urged that rather than leaving the MNJTF, Chad and other member states should focus on addressing the underlying weaknesses that the recent attack has revealed.
Dr. Ahmad Yahuza Getso, a security analyst and managing director of Eagles Integrated Security, warned of seven major implications of Chad’s potential exit, including weakened intelligence, increased opportunities for insurgents, and a rise in arms trafficking across borders. “If Chad is pulling out, it means the structure and capacity of ECOWAS… is being weakened,” Getso stated. He highlighted that Chad’s absence could create an intelligence blind spot along crucial border regions, reducing the coalition’s ability to anticipate and counter insurgent movements. “Less coordinated border monitoring will lead to more porous borders, giving insurgents and criminals the freedom to expand and operate,” he added, explaining that border regions in northeastern Nigeria, especially in Borno, Taraba, and Adamawa, could see a surge in violent activity.
The Diplomatic Repercussions of a Divided Coalition
The potential withdrawal of Chad comes amid a broader breakdown in regional cooperation. The recent decision by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso to withdraw from ECOWAS following military coups has already fragmented West African alliances, weakening cooperative security measures in a region that relies on them to combat insurgency. Chad’s exit from the MNJTF would add another layer to the growing diplomatic discord. According to Dr. Getso, this unravelling of alliances could lead to “additional diplomatic disrespect” among West African nations, further straining cross-border relations and weakening the collective defence against insurgent groups.
Getso stressed that if the MNJTF coalition dissolves further, insurgents may use the opportunity to expand their reach and create additional threats across borders. “This would not only make it easier for insurgents to operate across Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, but it would also strengthen regional criminal organizations,” he remarked. He added that Chad’s departure could embolden armed groups to expand their attacks, possibly forcing other nations to reconsider their involvement in the MNJTF or even ECOWAS. “It’s an opportunity for regional criminal networks to grow stronger,” Getso warned, pointing to the risk of arms smuggling and human trafficking networks operating more freely along less-secured borders.
Can Member States Fill Chad’s Operational Void?
Filling the operational gap left by Chad would be a significant challenge for other MNJTF member states. Usman emphasized that Chad has long served as a crucial node for MNJTF activities, particularly given its geographic location and its experience in counter-terrorism. “There is a long-term relationship…especially with people in the contiguous states in northeastern Nigeria,” he explained. He also noted that Chad’s borders provide direct access to terrorist strongholds, and its forces are trained to counter the insurgent tactics that have plagued the region for years.
Usman also highlighted the difficulties of counter-insurgency operations without Chad’s participation, explaining that the MNJTF would need to adapt by investing more heavily in naval blockades, surveillance, and perhaps external support. “They have to go beyond conventional fighting. If they denied them [the insurgents] that opportunity collectively,” he stated, “we will see better results than withdrawal.”
However, Dr. Getso raised concerns that logistical gaps might be too large for the remaining MNJTF countries to bridge on their own, suggesting that the coalition might need to seek increased support from external actors like the African Union, United Nations, or Western nations such as France. “Strengthening the quality of monitoring…and investing in technology for better border surveillance could help,” Getso recommended. He urged that member states could benefit from technological advancements, like drone surveillance, to keep insurgents at bay and improve intelligence gathering.
The Broader Risks of a Security Vacuum
If Chad ultimately decides to exit the MNJTF, security experts warn that regional security could deteriorate swiftly, with Boko Haram, ISWAP, and other armed groups using the situation to their advantage. Usman expressed concerns about a potential “domino effect,” where other member states might also reduce their involvement in MNJTF operations, leaving the coalition in a weakened state. With the MNJTF already under strain from Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, this move could lead to “a security vacuum that regional terrorists could readily exploit,” he said.
Dr. Getso highlighted that new groups could easily emerge in regions like Sokoto and other areas if the MNJTF’s structure weakens further. “There are seven critical issues: internal sabotage, negligence, inadequate military personnel, lack of private-public cooperation, non-strategic operations, and politicization of security,” he said. He added that a lack of accountability in military operations and weak punishment for lapses have allowed insurgent groups to persist and multiply, calling for immediate reforms to improve military strategy and public support.
An Urgent Call for Regional Unity
Both experts emphasized that Chad’s threatened withdrawal underscores an urgent need for member states to reaffirm their commitment to regional security and tackle the root causes of insurgency more effectively. Usman suggested that, instead of leaving, Chad could work closely with Nigeria, Cameroon, and other nations to strengthen the MNJTF and counteract the recent insurgent attack. “It’s not just about tactics and strategies; we need the overwhelming support of respective governments and communities,” he stated. “The best solution…is for them to put their acts together, to stay put, and to address the crisis at its source.”
Dr. Getso echoed this sentiment, urging Chad to consider a diplomatic solution, including open discussions with neighboring states to tackle shared security challenges. “It will affect Chad itself,” he warned. “There is a need to be cautious and careful.”
As the Lake Chad Basin faces an uncertain future, the region’s leaders are at a critical crossroads. With escalating insurgency and growing political tensions, Chad’s potential exit could either inspire a renewed commitment to collective security or unravel the coalition that has kept insurgents at bay for nearly three decades. The outcome, as both Usman and Getso conclude, depends on a shared willingness to cooperate, innovate, and prioritize the collective safety of their citizens over individual political interests.