…A new World Bank report reveals how prolonged instability is accelerating poverty, hunger, and economic stagnation in 39 fragile economies, most of them in Africa, while highlighting opportunities for recovery through targeted investments and international support.
By By Bunmi Yekini
After years of compounding crises, a new World Bank assessment paints a sobering picture of the world’s most vulnerable economies. Conflict and instability, worsened by the aftershocks of COVID-19, are tightening their grip on 39 countries, home to over 400 million people living on less than $3 a day. The result: worsening poverty, rising hunger, stagnant economies, and an urgent need for attention.
“These places are being left behind, and the suffering is immense,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist. “More than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability are Africans. Untreated, these conditions become chronic. Misery on this scale is inevitably contagious.”
According to the report, these conflict-affected economies, 21 of which are currently in active war, have seen their GDP per capita shrink by 1.8% annually since 2020, in stark contrast to the 2.9% growth in other developing countries. As a result, they are now home to nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor, a number expected to reach 435 million by 2030.
The toll extends far beyond income:
- Life expectancy in these nations is seven years lower than the average in other developing countries.
- Infant mortality is twice as high.
- One in five people faces acute food insecurity.
- 90% of children fail to meet minimum reading standards.
“There’s a visible trend of economic stagnation becoming the norm, not the exception, in these areas,” said M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “But it doesn’t have to stay that way. With targeted policies and stronger international support, policy makers can prevent conflict, strengthen governance, accelerate growth, and create jobs.”
The High Cost of Prolonged Conflict
The study points to a worrying trend: once conflict starts, it tends to persist. Half of the affected economies have remained in turmoil for more than 15 years. And when conflicts reach high-intensity levels, defined as more than 150 deaths per million people, they cause a 20% drop in GDP per capita over five years.
Employment is another major challenge. In 2022, only half of the 270 million working-age people in conflict-affected countries were employed, widening the economic gap with the rest of the world.
“Extreme poverty is now concentrated in places where it’s hardest to end,” the report warns. And because poverty fuels further instability, the cycle continues.
Seeds of Hope Amid Crisis
Despite these bleak statistics, the World Bank identifies untapped potential. Many of these countries possess vast natural resources, especially in minerals critical for renewable energy transitions. In countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, minerals needed for electric vehicles and solar technologies could form the backbone of new economies.
“These economies hold more than 13% of their GDP in natural resource wealth, three times the global developing average,” the report notes.
Another asset is demography. Unlike many parts of the world facing population decline, these fragile economies have rapidly growing working-age populations. By 2055, two in three people in these nations will be of working age.
This “demographic dividend,” however, will only be realized if investments are made in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and private sector development.
Prevention Over Cure
Preventing conflict before it escalates is not just humane, it’s economically prudent. The report urges stronger investment in early warning systems and in tackling fragility at its roots: weak governance, corruption, and the lack of effective institutions.
“Early conflict-warning systems, especially those that detect real-time shifts in risks, can enable timely interventions, which are far more cost-effective than responding after violence erupts,” the report explains.
A Global Responsibility
As global attention gravitates towards high-profile wars, the plight of quieter, long-suffering nations risks being forgotten. But failure to act, the World Bank warns, would be a mistake with global consequences.
“These are not isolated problems,” Gill emphasized. “Misery on this scale has ripple effects. Addressing it is not just a moral imperative, it’s a strategic one.”