By Bunmi Yekini
A new World Bank analysis reveals that the next quarter-century will be decisive in determining whether the world’s 26 poorest countries can achieve middle-income status. These nations, home to over 40% of people living on less than $2.15 a day, face unprecedented challenges including conflict, economic instability, and climate vulnerability.
“The next 25 years are a critical window of opportunity for the poorest countries—and the rest of the world has a vital stake in helping them get out of poverty,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist.
Over the past 25 years, progress has bypassed these countries, with inflation-adjusted GDP per capita growing by less than 0.1% annually on average. Only six of the current low-income countries are likely to reach middle-income status by 2050 without substantial changes, the report warns.
Highlighting the stark challenges, the analysis finds that 22 of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 17 experiencing conflict or fragility. Many face compounded risks like debt distress and climate vulnerability. However, the report points to untapped opportunities such as vast mineral resources critical for renewable energy and expanding working-age populations.
“The global battle to end extreme poverty will not be won until it is won in the 26 poorest countries,” said Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank. “National policymakers and the global community should act urgently to enable these countries to make the progress necessary for them to join the ranks of middle-income countries.”
Countries like Nepal and Rwanda serve as success stories, having overcome conflict and extreme poverty through a mix of international support, ambitious reforms, and strategic investments. The report suggests other low-income nations could replicate such progress with strong political stability, targeted policies, and sustained global assistance.
The analysis will be published in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report on January 14, 2025.