by Bunmi Yekini
World leaders and negotiators begin arriving in Brazil this week for COP30, the 30th United Nations climate summit, where governments face mounting pressure to revive global efforts to curb warming as the world drifts off track from its Paris Agreement goals.
The talks, formally opening on Nov. 10 in the Amazon city of Belém, come a decade after nearly 200 nations pledged in Paris to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a target the U.N. now says will be temporarily breached.
“This COP will test whether governments still have the will to deliver on the promises made in Paris,” a senior U.N. climate official said. “Overshooting 1.5°C is now inevitable, but the world can still bring temperatures back down, if action accelerates.”
Attendance by major leaders remained uncertain just days before the summit. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Prince William will attend, but China’s Xi Jinping is not expected, and the makeup of the U.S. delegation is unclear as President Donald Trump, who has vowed to withdraw from the Paris pact, attacks climate science and pledges to expand fossil fuel drilling.
Campaigners say U.S. back-tracking has already weakened momentum. “The political climate has shifted dramatically, and without U.S. leadership, consensus will be harder to build,” said an environmental diplomat familiar with the talks.
Logistics and controversy in the Amazon
Hosting COP for the first time, Brazil selected Belém, gateway to the Amazon rainforest, as a symbolic venue. But limited transport links and hotel space have fueled concerns that poorer nations could be priced out. Brazil also drew criticism for clearing rainforest to build summit infrastructure, while granting new oil and gas licences in the run-up to the event.
“It sends mixed signals,” said Mariana Costa, a Brazilian climate analyst. “Brazil wants to lead on forests, but fossil expansion undermines credibility.”
Key issues on the table
Governments are expected to debate:
- New national climate plans: Only one-third of countries have submitted updated emission-cutting strategies.
- Fossil fuels: After COP28’s pledge to “transition away” from fossil fuels, pressure is building to formalise a phase-out timeline.
- Climate finance: Wealthy nations agreed last year to provide at least $300 billion annually to poorer countries by 2035, far short of developing countries’ needs.
- Renewables: Nations must assess progress toward tripling renewable capacity by 2030, a target the world is not yet on track to meet.
- Nature protection: Brazil plans to launch a “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” to safeguard rainforest regions.
Expectations tempered
Diplomats warn that deep divisions, particularly over oil and gas, may limit ambition. Negotiators also face slow progress at other global environmental talks this year, including stalled plastics treaty and shipping emissions agreements.
Climate activists remain sceptical. “Year after year, leaders make promises they do not keep,” Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg said recently, accusing nations and corporations of “greenwashing.”
Still, officials argue the COP process remains crucial. “The Paris deal sparked near-universal climate action,” the U.N. official said. “Without it, we would be heading toward catastrophic levels of warming. COP30 can help correct course, but only if leaders show courage.”
The talks are scheduled to run through Nov. 21, though negotiations often extend as delegates race to strike a final deal.