New report warns of stalled trade volumes in 2025 as rerouting, tariffs, and decarbonization reshape maritime transport
By Damilola Abiola
Global shipping, which carries more than 80% of the world’s merchandise trade, is heading into a year of fragile growth, rising costs, and deepening uncertainty, according to a new report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters, launched on September 24, projects that seaborne trade will almost stall this year, with volumes inching up by just 0.5%.
After a robust 2024, when long-distance rerouting boosted ton-miles by nearly 6%, shipping is now grappling with the fallout of political tensions, new tariffs, shifting trade patterns, and reconfigured shipping lanes.
“The transitions ahead, to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes, must be just transitions,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. “They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”
The United States and several of its trading partners have rolled out new tariffs, port fees, and restrictions on port calls by foreign-operated vessels, measures that could further drive up costs and alter shipping routes. These policies, combined with rerouting and skipped port calls, are making journeys longer and more expensive.
Energy shipping is also being reshaped by global decarbonization. While coal and oil volumes are under pressure, gas trade continues to expand. At the same time, competition for critical minerals, vital for batteries, renewable energy, and digital technologies, is intensifying, with maritime logistics playing a pivotal role in whether developing countries can seize these new opportunities.